Figuring Risk of Ruin for MultiHand Video Poker Games

Risk of Ruin (RoR) is a type of long-run bankroll calculation. Loosely defined, it tells you how much money you should have to keep from going broke, assuming you play a given game 24 hours a day forever. If the game, including slot club, returns less than 100%, the RoR is infinite, meaning you're definitely going to go broke. If you're playing a game, including the slot club, that returns more than 100%, a finite bankroll is required.
The standard formula for the RoR calculation is reasonably well known among video poker mathematicians. It uses the return on the game (including slot club) and the 5-coin standard deviation. The standard deviation is the square root of the variance, and is a measure of volatility.To get more news about risk of ruin calculator, you can visit wikifx.com official website.

Although this is a difficult calculation to perform manually, computer programs can handle it quickly. Currently, the best software available today to calculate the bankroll needed is Dunbar's Risk Analyzer for Video Poker, which is an Excel spreadsheet with a lot of macros. If you play 25¢ 9/6 Jacks or Better video poker with a 1% slot club and are willing to take a 10% chance of going broke, Dunbar says you need a bankroll of $4,550. (Dunbar rounds all of his bankroll figures to the nearest $10.)

As you may know, I've released a new video poker software program called Video Poker for Winners. VPW also has a risk of ruin calculator, and the figure it comes up with for the game in question is $4,534. The difference in the numbers is likely due both to the number of significant digits maintained in the calculation, and the amount of rounding done. I'm assuming the VPW figure is more accurate, but for practical purposes, they are identical. What if we were playing Triple Play? In that case the formula gets a lot more complicated. Each of the 2,598,960 starting hands needs to be "convolved" into its possibilities. As an example of convolving, lets look at the hand 4h 5h 6h As Kd in dollar Jacks or Better. The correct play, of course, is to hold the hearts.

Starting from '456', it's possible that we end up with nothing at all (worth $0), a high pair (worth $5), two pair (worth $10), 3-of-a-kind (worth $15), a straight (worth $20), a flush (worth $30), or a straight flush (worth $250). It's not possible to end up with a full house, 4-of-a-kind, or a royal flush. The probability of ending up with each of these hands is well known and may be found in any video poker computer trainer, including VPW (but not Dunbar, which is a specialized bankroll tool and not a complete trainer).

Each of these hands, however, may be combined with each of the others on another line. For example, it's possible in Triple Play that we end up with nothing at all on the first line, a high pair on the second line, and a straight on the third. This gives us a total return of $25. It's also possible that we end up with a 3-of-a-kind once and two pair once for the same $25. In calculating RoR, we don't care HOW we got to $25, just that we did.